Human Scale Memory Timeline Calculator

I have previously mentioned my estimator for when human scale computation power will be available. I have since realized that the bottleneck might be memory rather than computation. I’ve created a similar estimator for memory.

Although we may achieve human level compute power in 2014, it looks like memory capacity will lag by another 6 years, assuming low estimates. With high estimates, compute power is available in 2020 and memory capacity will lag by 5 years after that, to 2025.

However, if Flash memory or similar technology will do the trick, a factor of 4 in cost reduction will advanced the timeline by about 4 years.

3 Responses to Human Scale Memory Timeline Calculator

  1. Marcel Mitsuto says:

    Have you considered the evolution of memristor devices?

  2. GoMario says:

    Not only that. I believe memristors are the ‘Rosetta stone’ when it comes to the workings of a pattern computer (ie Brain function) The other thing is – what do you define as ‘human scale computation power’. How exactly do you or anyone quantify that? Interesting thoughts nevertheless.

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